Every once in a while I dip my toes into the world of politics. This post could be considered that by some.
I have been thinking a lot about and listening to commentary on the war in Ukraine.
As we watch the atrocities being unleashed on the Ukrainian people, many have asked why we, being NATO and/or the United States and other democratic countries, are not sending in troops to help the Ukrainian people fight off the invaders in their country.
This is where I could jump deep into the chatterings of domestic and international geopolitical thought and debate.
We can get bogged down in the plethora of details surrounding the conflict, the countries, rules of engagement, centuries of historical context, financial impact, who’s right and wrong, and on and on.
In my opinion there is one key factor that makes the need for exquisite detail superfluous.
That one key factor is that we cannot apply rationality and logic to a completely illogical and irrational situation. In this specific case, I am referring to the actions of Russia’s “leader”, Vladimir Putin.
The conversations by the democratic and NATO leaders has focused on the need for restraint. I prefer restraint as well, however, the logic being used in these conversations is seriously flawed.
The prevailing thinking is that a full-throated effort to counter Putin’s illegal and deadly invasion would be dangerous and could end up starting a much larger war, even World War 3.
I do not disagree that there is a chance that the war could severely escalate. However, due to Putin’s instability, I believe that is a possibility regardless of what NATO countries do.
At the end of the day, we do not know what Putin will do. He has the capability of creating havoc throughout Europe and the world.
With that understanding, I have come to the conclusion that since we cannot apply rationality and logic to what Putin will do, we cannot use a logical approach to dealing with him.
Given that, what we can do is prevent the death and destruction that Putin is unleashing and likely will do so with increasing fervor.
To help illustrate my thinking on this, I have created the flowchart above that shows that regardless of the inputs the NATO countries put into the conflict, ranging from doing nothing to committing troops to fight against Russian forces, at the end of the day, we still cannot determine, predict or control what Putin does.
I would love to hear your thoughts.
I do not pretend to know all that is able to be known about this situation. I am open to new thoughts, ideas and approaches. As I see it now, until knew enlightenment befalls me, I believe we should fully engage to protect the Ukrainian people, their sovereignity and their democratic ideals and goals.